Европу ждет «горячая» зима и с «Северным потоком — 2»

Energy rationing feared as Russia’s gas squeeze exposes the UK’s perilously low reserves

Vladimir Putin's geostrategic squeeze has thrown Europe’s energy system into chaos

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD 5 September 2021 • 5:00pm

Russia’s Vladimir Putin is orchestrating a deliberate energy supply crisis in Europe by restricting the seasonal flows of pipeline gas, preventing the region rebuilding its severely depleted inventories fast enough before the onset of winter.

The UK is not the target of this geostrategic squeeze but is dangerously exposed after having slashed its gas storage capacity to wafer-thin levels in order to save costs. The country must rely on energy back-up through gas and electricity interconnectors to the Continent, which cannot be taken for granted in emergency circumstances.

“The UK is more vulnerable to a gas supply crisis than other Western European countries. It has way too little storage and it is buying more Russian gas than it realises through the Netherlands,” said Marco Alverà, chief executive of the Italian pipeline and infrastructure group SNAM.

Gas prices have exploded as a confluence of global factors throw Europe’s energy system into chaos. British futures contracts for November hit an all-time high of 135 pence per therm last week, three times typical levels for the season. 

Electricity prices blew through €100 (£85.71) per megawatt/hour across most of the Continent in August, routinely breaching €120 in Spain and the UK.

Energy experts warn that British consumers could face de facto rationing, or a price shock big enough to cause serious distress and force changes in behaviour. “I can’t ever remember a situation like this over the last twenty years. We’re looking at potential shutdowns and demand destruction,” said Adam Lewis from energy consultants Hartree Solutions. 

Gas is used for both home heating but also across swaths of industry. It is the UK’s main source of energy for power plants as coal is phased out, which is happening a decade sooner in this country than in Germany. Mr Lewis said the UK’s back-up coal capacity has already dropped to just two gigawatts, too little to make an appreciable difference in a serious crisis.

Barclays said Europe is facing a “perfect positive storm” as everything goes wrong at once. A cold wet spring in Europe collided with a tightening of the EU’s emissions trading scheme as permits are dialled down. This has led to a threefold rise in carbon prices over barely more than a year to €62 a tonne, causing a switch in usage from coal to gas. The latest perverse twist is that gas prices have reached such exorbitant levels that coal is suddenly coming back from the dead.

The crunch has been compounded by voracious demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia, along with a host of complications in the global gas industry linked to Covid. “The storage situation in Europe has turned increasingly dire, with winter quickly approaching,” said Francisco Blanch, chief energy strategist at Bank of America. 

Russia has seized on the global disruption to restrict the usual late summer flows to Europe through the Ukrainian and Polish pipelines, withholding supply in order to increase political leverage and force the European Commission to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on the Kremlin’s monopolistic terms. Gazprom is effectively "working to rule", delivering the obligatory contract volumes but not the seasonal top-up flows needed to replenish stocks. 

Mr Putin’s objective is to force German and EU regulators to swallow terms that would breach EU energy law and the "solidarity" principle of Article 194 in the Lisbon Treaty, leaving East European states vulnerable to energy blackmail.  

Professor Alan Riley, a specialist in EU energy law at the Atlantic Council, said the Kremlin is challenging the EU’s legal order in its largest sense, aiming to force the Commission to sweep aside rulings already reached by the European Court. It is poker for very high stakes. 

Prof Riley said Nord Stream 2 does not add fresh volumes. The chief effect is to divert existing flows and deprive Ukraine of energy self-defence. “The pipeline is purely diversionary. It does not supply a single molecule of extra gas,” he said.  

President Putin has already secured much of what he wants in a deal with Germany and the US - denounced by critics as a latter day "Yalta". The agreement abandons Ukraine to its fate, notwithstanding a pro-forma pledge by the Western allies that the Kremlin will not be allowed to “weaponize energy flows” once Nord Stream 2 begins to flow. Mr Putin is testing the credibility of this, going in for the kill. 

European gas inventories would normally be at 80pc to 90pc of capacity at this stage of September after months of summer replenishment. This year stocks are still just 58.6pc in Germany and 48.4pc in the Netherlands, according to daily data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. 

The UK is higher at 89.3pc after a concerted push to rebuild reserves in August, but the total level is so small that this offers limited margin of security.

SNAM’s Mr Alverà said the British Government made a grave error in refusing to fund the refurbishing cost of the UK’s biggest gas storage cavern at Rough on the Yorkshire coast, a decision that forced Centrica to shut the facility down in 2017. “The country is blessed with the geology of the North Sea but it hasn’t used those advantages, and now it has to rely on German and Dutch storage,” he said.

Martien Visser, head of corporate strategy at the European energy operator Gasunie, said the rule of thumb in the trade is that each country should maintain reserves equal to 20pc of their annual turnover. The UK has barely 3pc, and half of this is in operational stocks at terminals rather than a crisis reserve. The country cannot last more than a few days without fresh imports if hit with another Beast from the East.

“The UK doesn’t have enough for its own demand. The real risk is going to be in February, March, and April. I am a bit concerned. The market is not sure there is going to be enough gas in Europe if there is a cold winter,” said Mr Visser. 

The British Government thought it could rely on LNG from Qatar and the US to cover any shortfall. In normal circumstances this would be enough, but Covid has played havoc with LNG market  

East Asian demand has pushed the spot price to all time highs $20 per MMBtu, an eye-watering level for what should be the low season. The UK will have to compete with China and the rest of Asia in extreme circumstances. “Heading into the winter season, the LNG market's fuse has been lit,” said Bank of America’s Mr Blanch. 

In principle, the UK can rely on the gas and electricity interconnectors to meet winter energy demand, with flows regulated automatically through the price mechanism. But Brussels politicised the interconnectors as a tool of pressure during Brexit talks, and French President Emmanuel Macron has since repeated the threat over fish. 

The Commission has power under EU treaty law to cut off flows in extremis. The cross-Channel dispute over the AstraZeneca vaccine earlier this year suggests that the Commission would not hesitate to suspend normal market operations and agreements if Europe were in danger of freezing, or if the German industrial heartland faced power cuts.

“Over the last 10 months the markets have become much more aware of the importance of the interconnector issue. They are watching closely how the Europeans play this card,” said Hartree’s Mr Lewis.  

Mr Alverà told The Telegraph that the EU would not have been able to exploit this energy leverage so easily if Britain had been less careless about its strategic reserves.

Severing the interconnectors is of course a double-edged sword. It was the UK’s large LNG infrastructure that came to Europe’s rescue in 2009 with reverse flows, and that could happen again if Asian demand for gas comes off the boil. Europe does not have enough LNG terminals to compensate for seriously reduced Russian gas flows.

Russia too must be careful how far it pushes its political advantage. Gas blackmail could backfire badly if it causes Europe to accelerate its switch to renewable power and electric heat pumps, or even to revive long-term nuclear power. There are things that can be done in the short-run to send a message to Mr Putin.

“What Russia is doing is becoming so blatant that Europe will have to react,” said Prof Riley. Germany and other countries could reactivate nuclear plants in the process of being decommissioned, although that would be technically difficult and cause a political storm. The Netherlands could seek a temporary waiver on a court judgement that has led to Dutch power plants running at just 25pc of coal capacity.

At the end of the day, the UK has enough LNG terminal capacity to cover emergency gas needs whatever happens, and much of Europe does not. The question is what price we are willing to pay and whether tanker shipments will arrive soon enough in this year's drastically disrupted shipping market.

Factory closures reminiscent of the three-day working week in the 1970s are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Unless Russia restores normal flows quickly, this country can only pray for a mild winter.