Крах экономик вокруг автоиндустрии, будет ли откат назад к чух-чухам?

New car registration has hit a new low in Europe for the ninth consecutive month in March. According to recent industry data, Supply chain issues further worsened by the war in Ukraine continued to hit the region's auto industry, Reuters reported

The used car market did not get spared either. According to the folks at KPMG, used car prices had increased by 44% by November 2021 on a year-on-year basis. The multinational company says used car prices will only drop if auto manufacturers can solve supply chain issues.

Data from the European Automotive Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) reveal the number of vehicles registered in the European Union, Britain, and the European Free trade Association (EFTA) dropped by 18.8% year-on-year in March.

In 2020, the ACEA announced passenger car registration across the European Union slumped by 23.7% to 9.9 million units.

The chip shortage has caused havoc in the automotive industry, impacting production and, as a result affecting new car sales. New data from the UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) shows the damage lack of semiconductors has created in the region's auto industry.

All dominant European Union Markets, including Spain, Italy, Germany, and France, reported a dip in car registrations from 17.5% in Germany to about 30.2% in Spain.

In the UK, the number of new car registrations fell by about 14.3% in March, hitting a new low in the month since 1998. The country's close to 243,500 new vehicle registration in March 2022 is the lowest ever recorded in the industry in 24 years. On the brighter side, new all-electric vehicles increased by about 78% to 39,315.

Russia's invasion of its neighbour has added to the woes of European car manufacturers as Ukraine is a supplier of key parts.

European car sales sank in March as Russia's invasion of Ukraine added more problems to a sector already struggling with shortages of semiconductors, industry data showed Wednesday.

Passenger car registrations fell 20.5 percent compared to the same period last year, with 844,187 units sold, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA).

Excluding 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic paralysed the global economy, it was the worst performance for a month of March since statistics began in 1990.

Car production has been hampered worldwide since last year by a severe shortage of semiconductors, a key component for modern cars as they power everything from anti-lock braking systems to airbags to parking assistance technology.

The war has led to shortages of other parts, such as the cables used in car wiring harnesses and of which Ukraine is a manufacturer.

Several factories in Europe have had to go idle due to the lack of cables, with Volkswagen temporarily suspending production at a number of German sites.

Europe's top automaker saw sales fall by nearly a quarter in March, according to ACEA figures.

"The ongoing supply chain disruptions, further exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, negatively affected car production," the ACEA said.

Most countries in Europe had double-digit drops in car sales in March, the association said, with a fall of 17.5 percent in Germany, the biggest market.

There were even larger falls of around almost 20 percent in France, around 30 percent in Italy and Spain, and nearly 40 percent in Spain.

Outside the European Union, sales fell by 14.3 percent in Britain.

... In France for instance, modal share declined by 50 percent, from around 30 percent in the 1980s to 15 percent today. By contrast, road transport has been steadily increasing. In 1980, less than 50 percent of goods were transported by road. This rose to more than 75 percent by 2018. ¹⁰

First, traditional heavy-industry clients disappeared, particularly coal and steel. For instance, European coal production decreased by 60 percent between 1990 and 2019. ¹¹ In the United Kingdom, the phasing out of coal in the power industry caused a drop of 85 percent of the tkm performance of coal transport by rail. ¹² And in Germany, the volume of coal, iron, and metal transported dropped by around 85 million tons between 1970 and 2017—representing a 60 percent drop in the volume of freight rail from all sectors in the country. ¹³

Second, railways discontinued or reduced certain services—such as single wagonload, break bulk transport, and expedited overnight services—as these showed low or negative margins and faced heavy competition from road transport. Countries like Spain, the United Kingdom, and Denmark, for instance, no longer see any single wagonload traffic, which used to comprise 20 to 40 percent of all rail transport. In parallel, associated infrastructure was heavily reduced. For example, in Germany over the last 25 years the number of private rail sidings dropped from around 11,500 to around 2,300. ¹⁴ Similarly, in France the number of private access points dropped from roughly 11,200 in 1970 to 1,150 in 2019. ¹⁵

In the United Kingdom, rail volume dropped by 28 percent, from 18 billion tkm in 1980 to 13 billion tkm in 1995, reflecting the loss of British hard coal and steel customers. But between 1995 and 2015 rail freight volume grew 46 percent to 22 billion tkm, because privatized players were able to attract new customer segments, particularly the construction industry, as well as service intermodal flows to and from ports. ¹⁸

In Belgium and Poland, cargo units underwent privatization and were able to reorient their business models, thereby growing volumes while significantly cutting costs.

Austria has managed, over roughly 30 years, to keep its freight rail modal share just above 30 percent. ¹⁹ This was achieved through direct and indirect support for the industry. Such support includes subsidies